My current research is concerned with the basin-scale ocean circulation and air-sea interaction in the Arctic-Atlantic region, and whether associated climate variations are predictable on interannual-to-decadal time scales. Previous work has been on regional oceanography and air-sea interaction in both the Arctic and Antarctic, combining observations and fieldwork with numerical models (climate models, regional ice-ocean models and idealized models).

I am also a researcher leader at the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research.

Popular science article: What is happening to the Arctic sea ice in winter? https://www.sciencenorway.no/arctic-climate-change-ice/what-is-happening-to-the-arctic-sea-ice-in-winter/2351334

Popular science article: Rekordlite is og økt skipstrafikk i Arktis: Hvordan forbereder vi oss på fremtiden? High North News 26.01.2021.

Podcast from the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research: Arven etter Nansen

Presenter in the concert Next Step - Ocean. Part of a collaborative concert series between the University of Bergen and the Philharmonic Orchestra. Audience number: 1300. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y19aJEIcO14&t=7s

Popular science article: Klimavarsling - en arv etter Nansen. https://www.nordisktrykk.no/FLIP/2402-UMB-flip/mobile/index.html

Popular science article: Sjøisen i Arktis kan vokse selv om verden blir varmere. https://www.aftenposten.no/viten/i/K38EvE/sjoeisen-i-arktis-kan-vokse-selv-om-verden-blir-varmere

Popular science article: Isen i Barentshavet er i ferd med å forsvinne: https://www.aftenposten.no/viten/i/B8vKE/Isen-i-Barentshavet-er-i-ferd-med-a-forsvinne

Popular science article: Tror på mer is i Barentshavet denne vinteren: https://forskning.no/meninger/kronikk/2015/01/svalbard-kommer-ut-av-isen

Popular science article: Havis på rømmen. Klima, CICERO, 2014.

Popular science article: Nansen fikk rett. ”Forskning viser at...” Dagens Næringsliv, 25.08.2012.

Polar Oceanography (GEOF338), Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Norway. Teaching assistant (2014-2017).

Field course in Oceanography (GEOF332), Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Norway.   Teaching assistant (2014).

Winter School on Sea Ice Variability in the Arctic, Tromsø, Norway. Invited lecturer (2014).   

International polar field school, Svalbard, Norway. Invited lecturer (2009).

 

 

Academic article

• Dörr, Jakob Simon; Årthun, Marius; Eldevik, Tor et al. (2024). Expanding Influence of Atlantic and Pacific Ocean Heat Transport on Winter Sea-Ice Variability in a Warming Arctic. (external link)
• Dörr, Jakob Simon; Årthun, Marius; Docquier, David et al. (2024). Causal Links Between Sea-Ice Variability in the Barents-Kara Seas and Oceanic and Atmospheric Drivers. (external link)
• Bonan, David; Dörr, Jakob Simon; Wills, Robert C.J. et al. (2024). Sources of low-frequency variability in observed Antarctic sea ice. (external link)
• Onarheim, Ingrid Husøy; Årthun, Marius; Teigen, Sigurd H. et al. (2024). Recent Thickening of the Barents Sea Ice Cover. (external link)
• Passos, Leilane G.; Langehaug, Helene R.; Årthun, Marius et al. (2024). On the Relation between Thermohaline Anomalies and Water Mass Transformation in the Eastern Subpolar North Atlantic. (external link)
• Årthun, Marius (2023). Surface-Forced Variability in the Nordic Seas Overturning Circulation and Overflows. (external link)
• Fransner, Sara Filippa Krusmynta; Olsen, Are; Årthun, Marius et al. (2023). Phytoplankton abundance in the Barents Sea is predictable up to five years in advance. (external link)
• Årthun, Marius; Asbjørnsen, Helene; Chafik, Léon et al. (2023). Future strengthening of the Nordic Seas overturning circulation. (external link)
• Rieke, Ole; Årthun, Marius; Dörr, Jakob Simon (2023). Rapid sea ice changes in the future Barents Sea. (external link)
• Asbjørnsen, Helene; Årthun, Marius (2023). Deconstructing Future AMOC Decline at 26.5°N. (external link)
• Dörr, Jakob Simon; Bonan, David; Årthun, Marius et al. (2023). Forced and internal components of observed Arctic sea-ice changes. (external link)
• Efstathiou, Evangelia; Eldevik, Tor; Årthun, Marius et al. (2022). Spatial Patterns, Mechanisms, and Predictability of Barents Sea Ice Change. (external link)
• Passos, Leilane G.; Langehaug, Helene R.; Årthun, Marius et al. (2022). Impact of initialization methods on the predictive skill in NorCPM: an Arctic–Atlantic case study. (external link)
• Shu, Qi; Wang, Qiang; Årthun, Marius et al. (2022). Arctic Ocean Amplification in a warming climate in CMIP6 models. (external link)
• Koul, Vimal; Sguotti, Camilla; Årthun, Marius et al. (2021). Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance. (external link)
• Asbjørnsen, Helene; Johnson, Helen L.; Årthun, Marius (2021). Variable Nordic Seas Inflow Linked to Shifts in North Atlantic Circulation. (external link)
• Langehaug, Helene R.; Ortega, Pablo; Counillon, Francois Stephane et al. (2021). Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and Their Predictive Potential along the Atlantic Water Pathway. (external link)
• Dörr, Jakob Simon; Årthun, Marius; Eldevik, Tor et al. (2021). Mechanisms of regional winter sea-ice variability in a warming arctic. (external link)
• Årthun, Marius; Wills, Robert C.J.; Johnson, Helen L. et al. (2021). Mechanisms of decadal North Atlantic climate variability and implications for the recent cold anomaly. (external link)
• Årthun, Marius; Onarheim, Ingrid H.; Dörr, Jakob et al. (2021). The Seasonal and Regional Transition to an Ice-Free Arctic. (external link)
• Asbjørnsen, Helene; Årthun, Marius; Skagseth, Øystein et al. (2020). Mechanisms underlying recent Arctic atlantification. (external link)
• Skagseth, Øystein; Eldevik, Tor; Årthun, Marius et al. (2020). Reduced efficiency of the Barents Sea cooling machine. (external link)
• Asbjørnsen, Helene; Årthun, Marius; Skagseth, Øystein et al. (2019). Mechanisms of Ocean Heat Anomalies in the Norwegian Sea. (external link)
• Årthun, Marius; Eldevik, Tor; Smedsrud, Lars H. (2019). The Role of Atlantic Heat Transport in Future Arctic Winter Sea Ice Loss . (external link)
• Heuzé, Céline; Årthun, Marius (2019). The Atlantic inflow across the Greenland-Scotland ridge in global climate models (CMIP5). (external link)
• Årthun, Marius; Bogstad, Bjarte; Daewel, Ute et al. (2018). Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock. . (external link)
• Kolstad, Erik Wilhelm; Årthun, Marius (2018). Seasonal Prediction from Arctic Sea Surface Temperatures: Opportunities and Pitfalls. (external link)
• Årthun, Marius; Kolstad, Erik Wilhelm; Eldevik, Tor et al. (2018). Time Scales and Sources of European Temperature Variability. (external link)
• Langehaug, Helene R.; Sandø, Anne Britt; Årthun, Marius et al. (2018). Variability along the Atlantic water pathway in the forced Norwegian Earth System Model. (external link)
• Årthun, Marius; Eldevik, Tor; Viste, Ellen et al. (2017). Skillful prediction of northern climate provided by the ocean. (external link)
• Onarheim, Ingrid Husøy; Årthun, Marius (2017). Toward an ice-free Barents Sea. (external link)
• Årthun, Marius; Eldevik, Tor (2016). On anomalous ocean heat transport toward the Arctic and associated climate predictability. (external link)
• Boehme, Lars; Baker, Amy; Fedak, Michael et al. (2016). Bimodal winter haul-out patterns of adult Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii) in the southern Weddell Sea. (external link)
• Onarheim, Ingrid Husøy; Eldevik, Tor; Årthun, Marius et al. (2015). Skillful prediction of Barents Sea ice cover. (external link)
• Darelius, Elin Maria K.; Strand, Kjersti Opstad; Østerhus, Svein et al. (2014). On the seasonal signal of the Filchner overflow, Weddell Sea, Antarctica. (external link)
• Årthun, Marius; Holland, Paul R.; Nicholls, Keith W. et al. (2013). Eddy-driven exchange between the open ocean and a sub-ice shelf cavity. (external link)
• Årthun, Marius; Bellerby, Richard; Omar, Abdirahman et al. (2012). Spatiotemporal variability of air-sea CO2 fluxes in the Barents Sea, as determined from empirical relationships and modeled hydrography. (external link)
• Årthun, Marius; Eldevik, Tor; Smedsrud, Lars Henrik et al. (2012). Quantifying the influence of Atlantic heat on Barents Sea ice variability and retreat. (external link)
• Barthel, Knut; Daewel, Ute; Pushpadas, Dhanya et al. (2012). Resolving frontal structures: On the pay-off using a less diffusive but computational more expensive advection scheme. (external link)
• Årthun, Marius; Ingvaldsen, Randi; Smedsrud, Lars Henrik et al. (2011). Dense water formation and circulation in the Barents Sea. (external link)
• Årthun, Marius; Schrum, Corinna (2010). Ocean surface heat flux variability in the Barents Sea. (external link)

See a complete overview of publications in Cristin.

1. Passos, L., H. R. Langehaug, M. Årthun, and F. Straneo (2024). On the relation between thermohaline anomalies and water mass transformation in the Eastern Subpolar North Atlantic. J. Climate, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0379.1
2. Bonan, D. B., Dörr, J., Wills, R. C. J., Thompson, A. F., and Årthun, M. (2024). Sources of low-frequency variability in observed Antarctic sea ice, The Cryosphere, 18, 2141–2159, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2141-2024
3. Onarheim, I. H., Årthun, M., Teigen, S. H., Eik, K. J., & Steele, M. (2024). Recent thickening of the Barents Sea ice cover. Geophysical Research Letters, 51, e2024GL108225. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108225
4. Dörr, J., Årthun, M., Eldevik, T., & Sandø, A. B. (2024). Expanding influence of Atlantic and Pacific Ocean heat transport on winter sea-ice variability in a warming Arctic. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 129, e2023JC019900. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JC019900
5. Dörr, J., Årthun, M., Docquier, D., Li, C., & Eldevik, T. (2024). Causal links between sea-ice variability in the Barents-Kara Seas and oceanic and atmospheric drivers. Geophysical Research Letters, 51, e2024GL108195. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108195
6. Årthun, M. (2023). Surface-forced variability in the Nordic Seas overturning circulation and overflows. Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2023GL104158. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL104158
7. Dörr, J. S., Bonan, D. B., Årthun, M., Svendsen, L., and Wills, R. C. J. (2023). Forced and internal components of observed Arctic sea-ice changes, The Cryosphere, 17, 4133–4153, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4133-2023
8. Gerland, S., ..., Årthun, M., et al. (2023). Still Arctic?—The changing Barents Sea. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene; 11 (1): 00088. doi: https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2022.00088
9. Asbjørnsen, H., & Årthun, M. (2023). Deconstructing future AMOC decline at 26.5°N. Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2023GL103515. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103515
10. Årthun, M., Asbjørnsen, H., Chafik, L. et al. Future strengthening of the Nordic Seas overturning circulation. Nat Commun 14, 2065 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-37846-6
11. Fransner, F., Olsen, A., Årthun, M. et al. Phytoplankton abundance in the Barents Sea is predictable up to five years in advance. Commun Earth Environ 4, 141 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00791-9
12. Rieke, O., Årthun, M., and Dörr, J. S.: Rapid sea ice changes in the future Barents Sea, The Cryosphere, 17, 1445–1456, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1445-2023, 2023
13. Passos, L., Langehaug, H.R., Årthun, M. et al. Impact of initialization methods on the predictive skill in NorCPM: an Arctic–Atlantic case study. Clim Dyn 60, 2061–2080 (2023)
14. Shu, Q., Wang, Q., Årthun, M., Wang, S., Song, Z., Zhang, M., & Qiao, F. (2022). Arctic Ocean Amplification in a warming climate in CMIP6 models. Science advances, 8(30), eabn9755
15. Langehaug, H. R., Ortega, P., Counillon, F., Matei, D., Maroon, E., Keenlyside, N., ... & Årthun, M. (2022). Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and their predictive potential along the Atlantic water pathway. Journal of Climate, 35(7), 2111-2131
16. Efstathiou, E., Eldevik, T., Årthun, M., & Lind, S. (2022). Spatial Patterns, Mechanisms, and Predictability of Barents Sea Ice Change. Journal of Climate, 35(10), 2961-2973.
17. Smedsrud, L. H., Muilwijk, M., Brakstad, A., Madonna, E., Lauvset, S. K., Spensberger, C., ... & Årthun, M. (2022). Nordic Seas heat loss, Atlantic inflow, and Arctic sea ice cover over the last century. Reviews of Geophysics, 60(1), e2020RG000725
18. Dörr, J., M. Årthun, T. Eldevik, E. Madonna (2021). Mechanisms of regional winter sea-ice variability in a warming Arctic. Journal of Climate, 34(21), 8635-8653.
19. Koul, V., C. Sguotti, M. Årthun et al. (2021). Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance. Communication Earth & Environment, 2, 140.
20. Asbjørnsen, H., H.L. Johnson, M. Årthun (2021). Variable Nordic Seas Inflow Linked to Shifts in North Atlantic Circulation. Journal of Climate, 34(17), 7057-7071.
21. Årthun, M., Wills, R. C., Johnson, H. L., Chafik, L., & Langehaug, H. R. (2021). Mechanisms of decadal North Atlantic climate variability and implications for the recent cold anomaly. Journal of Climate, 34(9), 3421-3439.
22. Årthun, M., Onarheim, I. H., Dörr, J., & Eldevik, T.. (2021). The seasonal and regional transition to an ice‐free Arctic. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GC009054. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090825
23. Skagseth, Ø., Eldevik, T., Årthun, M., Asbjørnsen, H., Lien, V. S., & Smedsrud, L. H. (2020). Reduced efficiency of the Barents Sea cooling machine. Nature Climate Change, 1-6.
24. Asbjørnsen, H., Årthun, M., Skagseth, Ø., & Eldevik, T. (2020). Mechanisms Underlying Recent Arctic Atlantification. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(15), e2020GL088036.
25. Paasche, Øyvind, et al. "Addressing Arctic Challenges Requires a Synoptic Ocean Survey." Eos: Earth & Space Science News 100 (2019).
26. Årthun, M., Eldevik, T., & Smedsrud, L. H. (2019). The role of Atlantic heat transport in future Arctic winter sea ice loss. Journal of Climate, 32(11), 3327-3341
27. Asbjørnsen, H., Årthun, M., Skagseth, Ø., & Eldevik, T. (2019). Mechanisms of ocean heat anomalies in the Norwegian Sea. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 124(4), 2908-2923
28. Langehaug, H. R., Sandø, A. B., Årthun, M., & Ilıcak, M. (2019). Variability along the Atlantic water pathway in the forced Norwegian Earth System Model. Climate Dynamics, 1-20.
29. Heuzé, C. & Årthun, M. (2019). The Atlantic inflow across the Greenland-Scotland ridge in global climate models (CMIP5). Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 7.
30. Årthun, M., Bogstad, B., Daewel, U., Keenlyside, N. S., Sandø, A. B., Schrum, C., & Ottersen, G. (2018). Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock. PloS one, 13(10), e0206319.
31. Kolstad, E. W., & Årthun, M. (2018). Seasonal Prediction from Arctic Sea Surface Temperatures: Opportunities and Pitfalls. Journal of Climate, 31(20), 8197-8210.
32. Årthun, M., E. W. Kolstad, T. Eldevik, N. S. Keenlyside, 2018. Time scales and sources of European temperature variability. Geophysical Research Letters. doi: 10.1002/2018gl077401
33. Onarheim, I. H., and M. Årthun (2017), Toward an ice-free Barents Sea, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 8387–8395.
34. Årthun, M., T. Eldevik, E. Viste, H. Drange, T. Furevik, H. L. Johnsson, N. S. Keenlyside, 2017. Skillful prediction of northern climate provided by the ocean. Nature Communications 8. 
35. Årthun, M and T. Eldevik, 2016. On anomalous ocean heat transport toward the Arctic and associated climate predictability. Journal of Climate, 29, 689-704.
36. Boehme, L., Baker, A., Fedak, M., Årthun, M., Nicholls, K., Robinson, P., ... & Photopoulou, T. (2016). Bimodal winter haul-out patterns of adult Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii) in the Southern Weddell Sea. PloS one, 11(5), e0155817
37. Onarheim, I. H., T. Eldevik, M. Årthun, R. B. Ingvaldsen, L. H. Smedsrud, 2015. Skillful prediction of Barents Sea ice cover. Geophysical Research Letters 42 (13), 5364-5371.
38. Darelius, E., Strand, K. O., Østerhus, S., Gammeslrød, T., Årthun, M., & Fer, I. (2014). On the seasonal signal of the Filchner overflow, Weddell Sea, Antarctica. Journal of physical oceanography, 44(4), 1230-1243.
39. Årthun, M., P. R. Holland, K. W. Nicholls, D. L. Feltham 2013. Eddy-driven exchange between the open ocean and a sub-ice shelf cavity. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 43, 2372-2387.
40. Årthun, M., K. W. Nicholls, L. Boehme 2013. Wintertime water mass modification near an Antarctic Ice Front. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 43, 359-365.   
41. Barthel, K., Daewel, U., Pushpadas, D., Schrum, C., Årthun, M., H. Wehde 2012. Resolving frontal structures: on the payoff using a less diffusive but computationally more expensive advection scheme. Ocean Dynamics, 62, 1457-1470.
42. Årthun, M., K. W. Nicholls, K. Makinson, M. A. Fedak, L. Boehme 2012. Seasonal inflow of warm water onto the southern Weddell Sea continental shelf, Antarctica. Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L17601.
43. Årthun, M., T. Eldevik, L. H. Smedsrud, Ø. Skagseth, R. B. Ingvaldsen, 2012. Quantifying the influence of Atlantic heat on Barents Sea ice variability and retreat. Journal of Climate, 25, 4736-4743.    
44. Årthun, M., R. G. J. Bellerby, A. Omar, C. Schrum., 2012. Spatiotemporal variability of air-sea CO2 fluxes in the Barents Sea, as determined by empirical relationships and modelled hydrography. Journal of Marine Systems, 98-99, 40-50. 
45. Årthun, M., R. B. Ingvaldsen, L. H. Smedsrud, C. Schrum., 2011. Dense water formation and circulation in the Barents Sea. Deep Sea Research I, 58(8), 801-817.    
46. Årthun, M. and C. Schrum., 2010. Ocean surface heat flux variability in the Barents Sea. Journal of Marine Systems 83, 88-98.

Ongoing projects:

Overturning circulation in the new Arctic (ArMOC), Project leader, 2023-2027, https://www.uib.no/en/rg/fysos/171033/armoc 

Arven etter Nansen, WP-leader (https://arvenetternansen.com/).

Bjerknes Climate Prediction Unit, WP-leader (https://bjerknes.uib.no/en/project/bjerknes-climate-prediction-unit).

Dynamics of the North Atlantic surface and overturning circulation (DYNASOR), WP-leader

 

Previous projects:

Pathways, processes, and impacts of poleward ocean heat transport (PATHWAY), Project leader

Blue-Action: Arctic Impact on Weather and Climate (http://www.blue-action.eu/)

Predictability of Arctic/North Atlantic climate (PRACTICE)

Seasonal Forcasting Engine