Research
My research interests revolve around political behavior and democratic theory. More specifically, they include political and civic participation, voting behavior, public opinion, election forecasting, collective wisdom, political legitimacy, and more. I also take an interest in political methodology, and have conducted studies based on survey experiments, time series data, and multi level structured data.
Teaching
Quantitative Methods in the Social Sciences
The American Political System
Publications
Academic lecture
- Rydland, Håvard T.; Arnesen, Sveinung (2025). Who Deserves a Sick Day? A Conjoint Study on Sickness Absence Legitimacy. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung; Segaard, Signe Bock (2024). Velgernes preferanse for kommunestyre- og stortingskandidater: betydningen av kandidatenes sosiale bakgrunn . (external link)
- Johannesson, Mikael; Knudsen, Erik; Arnesen, Sveinung (2023). How Partisan Selective Exposure May Not Be What You Think It Is. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung; Saghaug Broderstad, Troy; Johannesson, Mikael Poul et al. (2019). The Bounded Legitimacy of Majority Rule. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung; Saghaug Broderstad, Troy; Johannesson, Mikael Poul et al. (2018). By What Authority? Uncovering the Conditional Mandate from Referendums. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung; Saghaug Broderstad, Troy; Johannesson, Mikael Poul et al. (2018). By What Authority? Uncovering the Conditional Mandate from Referendums. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung; Johannesson, Mikael Poul; Linde, Jonas et al. (2017). Referendums as the wiggle room of democracy. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung (2015). Opinion Polls’ Effect on Public Opinion - Presentation of A Time Series Survey Experiment Design. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung; Stefan, Dahlberg (2015). Opinion Polls' Effect on Political Attitudes - Results from a time-series survey experiment in a general population web panel. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung; Stefan, Dahlberg; Jonas, Linde (2015). Not only measuring but also shaping the opinion? A time-series surey experiment on the effect of polls on public opinion. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung (2014). The legitimacy of collective decisions – A survey experimental approach to the micro foundations of political legitimacy. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung (2014). The legitimacy of collective decisions – Results from a real money experiment in a general population survey.. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung (2014). The legitimacy of collective decisions – A survey experimental approach to the micro foundations of political legitimacy. (external link)
- Christensen, Dag Arne; Arnesen, Sveinung (2012). Valgdeltakelsen ved kommunestyrevalget 2011. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung (2011). How prediction markets can help us understand events´impact on the vote in presidential elections. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung (2009). Kan man forutsi valgresultater? Resultater fra de amerikanske presidentvalgene i 2004 og 2008. (external link)
Report
- Arnesen, Sveinung; Blåka, Sara; Broderstad, Troy Saghaug et al. (2024). Evaluering av lokaldemokratitiltak i foregangskommuner. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung; Fimreite, Anne Lise; Ohren, Arild et al. (2022). Hvordan gjennomføre borgerpanel. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung; Johannesson, Mikael Poul (2022). Demokratiske algoritmer. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung; Fimreite, Anne Lise; Skiple, Jon Kåre (2021). Deliberativ meningsmåling i Bergen. (external link)
- Fladmoe, Audun; Eimhjellen, Ivar; Sivesind, Karl Henrik et al. (2019). Frivillighetens grunnfjell: Hvem gir mest tid og penger til frivillige organisasjoner?. (external link)
- Ivarsflaten, Elisabeth; Tvinnereim, Endre; Böhm, Gisela et al. (2018). Norwegian Citizen Panel 2018: Study Documentation and data set. (external link)
- Eimhjellen, Ivar; Arnesen, Sveinung (2018). Organisasjonsengasjement blant innvandrarar. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung; Johannesson, Mikael; Linde, Jonas et al. (2017). Do Polls Influence Opinions? Testing the Spiral of Silence using a Dynamic Response Feedback Algorithm. (external link)
- Klausen, Jan Erling; Arnesen, Sveinung; Christensen, Dag Arne et al. (2013). Medvirkning med virkning? Innbyggermedvirkning i den kommunale beslutningsprosessen. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung; Folkestad, Bjarte; Gjerde, Steinar (2013). Frivillig deltakelse i Norden : Et komparativt perspektiv. (external link)
- Christensen, Dag Arne; Arnesen, Sveinung; Ødegård, Guro et al. (2013). Valgdeltagelsen ved kommunestyrevalget 2011. (external link)
- Klausen, Jan Erling; Arnesen, Sveinung; Christensen, Dag Arne et al. (2013). Medvirkning med virkning? Innbyggermedvirkning i den kommunale beslutningsprosessen. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung (2009). Penger og politikk. (external link)
Academic article
- Arnesen, Sveinung; Broderstad, Troy Saghaug; Johannesson, Mikael Poul et al. (2024). Beyond the Ballot: The Impact of Voting Margin and Turnout on the Legitimacy of Referendum Outcomes in Europe. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung; Broderstad, Troy Saghaug; Fishkin, James S. et al. (2024). Knowledge and support for AI in the public sector: a deliberative poll experiment. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung; Christensen, Dag Arne; Finseraas, Henning (2023). Look to Denmark or not? An experimental study of the Social Democrats’ strategic choices. (external link)
- Magalhães, Pedro C.; Skiple, Jon Kåre; Pereira, Miguel M. et al. (2023). Beyond the Myth of Legality? Framing Effects and Public Reactions to High Court Decisions in Europe. (external link)
- Esaiasson, Peter; Arnesen, Sveinung; Werner, Hannah (2022). How to be Gracious about Political Loss—The Importance of Good Loser Messages in Policy Controversies. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung; Bergh, Johannes; Christensen, Dag Arne et al. (2021). Support for electoral system reform among voters and politicians: Studying information effects through survey experiments. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung; Duell, Dominik; Johannesson, Mikael Poul (2019). Do citizens make inferences from political candidate characteristics when aiming for substantive representation?. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung; Saghaug Broderstad, Troy; Johannesson, Mikael Poul et al. (2019). Conditional Legitimacy: How Turnout, Majority Size and Outcome Affect Perceptions of Legitimacy in EU Membership Referendums. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung; Bergh, Johannes; Christensen, Dag Arne et al. (2019). Påvirker det å bli informert om konsekvenser av endringer i stortingvalgordningen velgernes holdninger til den? En surveyeksperimentell tilnærming. (external link)
- Christensen, Dag Arne; Arnesen, Sveinung; Midtbø, Tor (2019). Påvirker innvandringsscenarier nordmenns holdninger til innvandrere? Et surveyeksperiment. (external link)
- Strijbis, Oliver; Arnesen, Sveinung (2018). Explaining variance in the accuracy of prediction markets. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung; Bærøe, Kristine; Cappelen, Cornelius et al. (2018). Could information about herd immunity help us achieve herd immunity? Evidence from a population representative survey experiment. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung; Johannesson, Mikael Poul; Linde, Jonas et al. (2017). Do Polls Influence Opinions? Investigating Poll Feedback Loops Using the Novel Dynamic Response Feedback Experimental Procedure. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung (2017). Legitimacy from Decision-Making Influence and Outcome Favourability: Results from General Population Survey Experiments. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung; Peters, Yvette (2017). The Legitimacy of Representation: How Descriptive, Formal, and Responsiveness Representation Affect the Acceptability of Political Decisions. (external link)
- Strijbis, Oliver; Arnesen, Sveinung; Bernhard, Laurent (2016). Using prediction market data for measuring the expected closeness in electoral research. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung; Folkestad, Bjarte (2016). Sosial forankring og aktivt medlemskap i frivillige organisasjoner. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung; Bergfjord, Ole Jakob (2014). Prediction Markets vs Polls – an Examination of Accuracy for the 2008 and 2012 Elections.. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung; Oliver, Strijbis (2013). ACCURACY AND BIAS IN EUROPEAN PREDICTION MARKETS. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung (2012). Forecasting Norwegian elections: Out of work and out of office. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung (2011). How prediction markets help us understand events‵ impact on the vote in US Presidential Elections. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung (2011). Informasjon, motivasjon, prediksjon: Eit forsøk med prediksjonsmarknad før stortingsvalet 2009. (external link)
Feature article
Popular scientific lecture
Academic chapter/article/Conference paper
- Arnesen, Sveinung; Fimreite, Anne Lise; Aars, Jacob (2021). Loddet er kastet: Om bruken av innbyggerpaneler i lokalpolitikken. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung; Folkestad, Bjarte; Johannesson, Mikael (2017). Har kommunevalgkampen noen betydning?. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung (2015). Aktivierung und Überzeugung auf Prognosemärkte und in Umfragen. (external link)
- Christensen, Dag Arne; Arnesen, Sveinung (2013). Deltakelsen ved kommunestyrevalget 2011. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung; Folkestad, Bjarte; Christensen, Dag Arne (2012). Sosial forankring og aktivt medlemskap i frivillige organisasjoner. (external link)
- Wollebæk, Dag; Arnesen, Sveinung (2012). Konsekvenser av organisasjonsaktivitet for yrkesdeltakelse. (external link)
Interview
- LSE, EUROPP Blog; Arnesen, Sveinung (2013). Following Monday’s elections, Norway has taken a firm step to the right. (external link)
- NRK, P2; Arnesen, Sveinung (2013). Valg i P2. (external link)
- BT, Redaksjonen; Arnesen, Sveinung (2013). Dette står på spill. (external link)
- BT, Redaksjonen; Arnesen, Sveinung (2013). Pølser og politikk. (external link)
- Reuters, Reuters; Arnesen, Sveinung (2013). Norway's centre-right on course for election win. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung; LSE, EUROPP Blog (2013). History suggests that Norway is in line for a change of government in September’s elections. (external link)
- ARA, CAT; Arnesen, Sveinung (2013). Els candidats han eludit la massacre d'Utoya en campanya. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung (2011). Valgkommentar i Vestlandsrevyen, NRK Hordaland. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung (2008). Kjøpe Siv-aksjer?. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung (2008). Kjøpe aksjar på valresultat?. (external link)
Programme participation
- BT, Redaksjonen; Arnesen, Sveinung (2013). Studio BT, valgsending. (external link)
- BT, Redaksjonen; Arnesen, Sveinung (2013). Studio BT, valgsending. (external link)
- BT, Redaksjonen; Arnesen, Sveinung (2013). Studio BT, valgsending. (external link)
- Arnesen, Sveinung (2013). TV-intervju om regjeringssammensetningen. (external link)
Doctoral dissertation
Book review
Reader opinion piece
Academic literature review
See a complete overview of publications in Cristin.
Published or forthcoming in refereed journals
Strijbis, Oliver, Sveinung Arnesen, and Lauren Bernhard (2016): "Using Prediction Market Data for Measuring Expected Closeness in Electoral Research.", Electoral Studies.
Arnesen, Sveinung (in press): "Legitimacy from Decision-Making Influence and Outcome Favorability", Political Studies.
Arnesen, Sveinung and Oliver Strijbis (2015):"Accuracy and Bias in European Prediction Markets", in Statistica Applicata - Italian Journal of Applied Statistics. Special issue on election forecasting techniques.
Arnesen, Sveinung and Ole J. Bergfjord (2015): "Prediction Markets vs Polls - An Examination of Accuracy for the 2008 and 2012 Elections." Journal of Prediction Markets, 8(3), p. 24-33.
Arnesen, Sveinung (2012): "Forecasting Norwegian elections: Out of work and out of office". International Journal of Forecasting 01/2012; 28(4):789–796. Full-text freely available here.
Arnesen, Sveinung (2011): "Informasjon, motivasjon, prediksjon: Eit forsøk med prediksjonsmarknad før stortingsvalet 2009". Tidsskrift for samfunnsforskning. 2011 ;Volum 52.(1) s. 99-121
Arnesen, Sveinung (2011): "How prediction markets help us understand events‘ impact on the vote in US Presidential Elections". Journal of Prediction Markets. 5(3), 42-63.
Book chapters
Arnesen, Sveinung (2015): Aktivierung und Überzeugung auf Prognosemärkten und in Umfragen, in Oliver Strijbis and Kai-Uwe Schnapp (Eds.), Aktivierung und Überzeugung im Bundestagswahlkampf 2013, Springer DE.
Christensen, Dag Arne, and Sveinung Arnesen (2013): Deltakelsen ved kommunestyrevalget 2011, in Et robust lokaldemokrati - lokalvalget i skyggen av 22. juli 2011. Abstrakt forlag 2013, ISBN 978-92-7935-342-3. s. 47-72.
Most recent conference paper
Arnesen, Sveinung, Stefan Dahlberg, and Jonas Linde (2015): "Not only measuring but also shaping the opinion?" The 2015 American Political Science Association Conference, at San Fransisco, CA.
Arnesen, Sveinung, and Yvette Peters (2015): "The Legitimacy of Representation. Selection Procedures and Socio-economic Characteristics of Representatives in Decision-making Processes." Paper presented at the 5th Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, At Wien, Austria.
Degree dissertation
Arnesen, Sveinung (2012): Leaping into the unknown - Comparing, testing and applying methods of predicting elections. PhD thesis, University of Bergen.
Book reviews
Josefsen, Eva og Jo Saglie (red): Sametingsvalg – Velgere, partier, medier. Oslo: Abstrakt forlag. 2011. 273 pages. Reviewed in Norwegian Journal of Political Science 2013, No. 1:75-78.
Bjørn Erik Rasch (red.): Amerikansk politikk – politisk system og politisk tenkning. Oslo:Abstrakt forlag. 2008. 326 pages. Tidsskrift for samfunnsforskning 2009 - 3:403-405
Reports
Christensen, Dag Arne, Sveinung Arnesen, Guro Ødegård, and Johannes Bergh (2013): Valgdeltagelsen ved kommunestyrevalget 2011. Oslo: Institute for social research 2013 (ISBN 978-82-7763-405-0) 117 pages. ISF report (2013:001).
Klausen, Jan Egil, Sveinung Arnesen, Dag Arne Christensen, Bjarte Folkestad, Gro Sandkjær Hanssen, Marte Winswold, and Jacob Aars (2013): Medvirkning med virkning? Innbyggermedvirkning i den kommunale beslutningsprosessen. Joint report NIBR/Uni Rokkan Centre.
Arnesen, Sveinung, Bjarte Folkestad and Dag Arne Christensen (2012): "Sosial forankring og aktivt medlemskap i frivillige organisasjoner", in Deltagelse i frivillige organisasjoner: Forutsetninger og effekter, Bernard Enjolras, K. Steen-Johnsen and G. Ødegård (eds.). Report, Centre for Research on Civil Society and Voluntary Research, Bergen/Oslo, Norway, p. 27-49.
Wollebæk, Dag, and Sveinung Arnesen (2012): "Konsekvenser av organisasjonsaktivitet for yrkesdeltakelse", in Deltagelse i frivillige organisasjoner: Forutsetninger og effekter, Bernard Enjolras, K. Steen-Johnsen and G. Ødegård (eds.). Report, Centre for Research on Civil Society and Voluntary Research, Bergen/Oslo, Norway, p.125-158.
Rydland, Tore, Sveinung Arnesen and Åse Gilje Østensen (2008): "Contextual data for the European Social Survey. An Overview and assessment of extant resources." Report prepared for the European Social Survey. NSD Report No. 124, Norwegian Social Science Data Services (NSD).
Selected dissemination texts
Arnesen, Sveinung (2013): "Following Monday ́s Election, Norway has taken a firm step to the right". Comment article on London School of Economics ́ EUROPP blog.
Arnesen, Sveinung (2013): "History suggests that Norway is in line for a change of government in September ́s elections." Comment article on London School of Economics ́ EUROPP blog.
Arnesen, Sveinung (2012): "Velgerpreferanser og valgkamp", in Replikk, No. 34, 21-36.
Projects
The European Internet Panel Study - EIPS
The Digital Social Science Core Facilities - DIGSSCORE
The Digital Social Science Core Facility (DIGSSCORE) is an infrastructure for advanced social science data collection and multi-disciplinary research at the University of Bergen. DIGSSCORE extends the successful probability-based internet-panel which was established at the University of Bergen in 2012, The Norwegian Citizen Panel, and will integrate it with a fully equipped on-site social science digital research lab, The Citizen Lab, starting August 2016. The facility takes advantage of changes in technology and research methodology that combine to bring computer laboratory research and survey studies ever closer together. This environment is designed to maximize opportunities for scientific innovation and collaboration in the social sciences and multidisciplinary research.
The Norwegian Citizen Panel
Norwegian Citizen Panel is a web-based survey of Norwegians’ opinions toward important societal matters. Social scientists from the University of Bergen and The Rokkan Center run the panel, which is a non-profit project exclusively used for research purposes. The participants represent a cross-section of the Norwegian population, who will be invited a few times a year to give their opinion on important questions to Norwegian society and politics.
The European Prediction Market Infrastructure for Political Elections - EPMIPE
The European Prediction Market Infrastructure for Political Elections develops and facilitates the use of prediction market software for use in relation to political elections and popular votes. The software has been employed to Norwegian national elections, German national elections, Spanish national and regional elections, and to Swiss national elections and popular votes. The data generated from this project have resulted in publications in peer reviewed channels such as Electoral Studies, International Journal of Forecasting, Italian Journal of Applied Statistics, Journal of Prediction Markets, Journal of Social Research.