Robin Hogarth, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain

Abstract: Intuition: Thoughts and speculation about engineering better judgments

Taking the view that intuitive judgments result from experience with the environment, we stress the importance of specifying the structure of the environment in understanding the outcomes of intuitive processes. In particular we re-examine Hogarth’s concepts of kind and wicked learning environments and show how they can be extended to account for many judgmental phenomena.  Given this knowledge, we raise the issue of how to help people make more accurate intuitive judgments.  As a specific example, we examine people’s apparent difficulties in understanding and coping with the phenomenon of regression toward the mean and propose a simple heuristic that can lead to more accurate judgments.

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