Simulating the surface mass balance of Jostedalsbreen
This Master's project was designed for Katarina Keerd, who started her Master's program in Earth Sciences, on Quaternary geology and Palaeoclimate in the spring semester of 2023. Below is her planned project description of her Master's program and thesis.
Main content
Project description:
Jostedalsbreen in western Norway is the largest glacier in continental Europe. As most glaciers worldwide, it is losing mass at an accelerating rate (Rounce et al., 2023). This has consequences for seasonal runoff rates, flood frequency and severity, and hydropower production. However, our current knowledge about future mass changes is limited by the lack of detailed simulations. It is also unclear how much the simulation results depend on uncertainties in climate scenario and their representation in climate models. Our previous work on the Greenland ice sheet revealed that climate model bias can have a significant impact (Holube et al., 2022).
In this project, you will run simulations with the Bergen Snow Simulator (BESSI, Born et al., 2019). This model is capable of comprehensive simulations of surface mass balance, yet is easy enough to learn and cheap enough to run so that thousands of simulations are feasible within a relatively short period of time. This makes it possible to thoroughly explore different sources of uncertainty and to provide a robust estimate of a) the future surface mass balance of Jostedalsbreen, and b) the trustworthyness of these results.
This project mirrors an ongoing PhD project with a simular aim on Folgefonna. Methods are fully developed and tested, but will have to be adapted for this new application. This setup also ensures a close supervision and the availability of help with technical issues when needed. The work will include 1) preparing climate model data from various sources, 2) setting up BESSI for the Jostedalsbreen domain, 3) running ensemble simulations with BESSI, and 4) the comprehensive analysis of the simulation results including basic statistics.
Born et al. (2019), An efficient surface energy-mass balance model for snow and ice, The Cryosphere 13, 1529-1546 Holube et al. (2022), Sources of uncertainty in Greenland surface mass balance in the 21st century, The Cryosphere 16, 315-331 Rounce et al. (2023), Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters, Science 379, 78-83
Proposed course plan during the master's degree (60 ECTS):
GEOV325 Glaciology
GEOV328 Glaciology field course
GEOV302 Data analysis in earth science
Prerequisites:
Candidates should have an interest in glaciology or hydrology, and be motivated to learn computer modeling. Previous
experience with python or similar is an advantage but not expected.
Please take contact with the supervisors before signing up.
Field, lab and analysis:
The work consists of a) preparing simulations with BESSI, b) running an ensemble of simulations, and c) analyzing the results.
a) Suitable climate data to force the mass balance simulations has already been gathered and prepared, but it needs to be adapted to the new domain. Similar preparations are necessary for the model itself but we have ample experience with that and can help.
b) With good preparation (see a) this work step should not pose major difficulties.
c) Analysis of the simulations can reach from the preparation of simple figures to the advanced statistical analysis of thousands of simulations. Again, our research group has experience with this type of work and can help.
