Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) needs a major boost to reach 2°C climate target

The study, published in Nature Climate Change, is authored by CET PhD candidate Tsimafei Kazlou and finds that the 2°C climate target can be out of reach without major policy and investment efforts into CCS technologies. Kazlou and his co-authors have conducted a thorough analysis of CCS deployment to see whether they can expand fast enough to reach the climate targets set in the Paris Agreement.

- Our analysis shows that we are unlikely to capture and store more than 600 gigatons (Gt) of CO₂ over the 21^st century. This contrasts with many climate mitigation pathways from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) latest report, which in some cases require upwards of 1000 Gt of CO2 captured and stored by the end of the century says Tsimafei Kazlou, PhD Candidate at CET.  

The study is featured in the Nature Climate Change with a research briefing and the authors have elaborated on their findings in this blogpost.

The Paris Agreement sets long-term goals to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to hold the global temperature increase to below 2°C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 2°C above pre-industrial levels.  

- The good news is that if CCS can grow as fast as other low-carbon technologies have, the 2°C target would be within reach (on tiptoes). The bad news, 1.5°C would likely still be out of reach,” says Jessica Jewell, Associate Professor, at Chalmers University of Technology and Professor II at CET.

The most expensive industry project in Norway

The study was published the same week the Norwegian CCS project Northern Lights was launched. Located in Øygarden just outside of Bergen, it is the world’s first cross-border transport and storage facility for CO₂. The launch was celebrated with optimism and a brass band and the first load of liquid CO₂ will arrive in Spring 2025.

Northern Lights is the most expensive industry project in Norway with the Norwegian government footing the bill of 80 per cent of the expenses. It is now up to the partners Equinor, Shell and TotalEnergies to fund the second phase.

As of today, the Northern Lights facility can store 1,5 million tons of CO₂ annually. If phase two is realised this will increase to 5 million tons annually.  This is small in terms of global emissions but as Kazlou explains the EU, with Norway’s help, is a frontrunner in this technology:

– CCS is at the historical peak of the political agenda in Europe, but planned projects are yet to materialise into operational ones. The Northern Lights project in Norway is clearly a frontrunner in this respect.

56 Northern Lights projects needed by 2040

The European Green Deal targets 2050 as the year the EU should become the first climate-neutral continent. CCS technologies play an important role in many climate mitigation strategies including net-zero targets, because this technology is essential for achieving negative emissions and ‘compensating’ emissions in sectors where mitigation options are limited (such as cement, agriculture and aviation).

To achieve this ambitious net-zero target, the EU Net-Zero Industry Act aims to increase the manufacturing capacity for net-zero technologies and, among other things, create a CO₂ storage market to store 50 megatons (Mt) annually by 2030. This is “the equivalent of the annual CO₂ emissions of Sweden”, as the recently published EU Industrial Carbon Management Strategy puts it.

The Strategy also outlines the trajectory for CCS development by stating that 280 Mt/year capacity will be required by 2040. This would mean 56 Northern Lights projects in Europe by 2040 – about two facilities for each member state.

– Yes, it sounds a lot, but there is a precedent for similar investment and scaling in other industries. Our analysis shows that CCS growth required for achieving the 2040 target is in line with the growth of wind power in the EU in the 2000s, says Kazlou.

A piece in the mitigation jigsaw puzzle

CCS has a long history of political support in Norway. The Stoltenberg government famously called the failed CCS project at the Mongstad Oil refinery their version of the “moon landing”.  The project was abandoned in 2013 and Mongstad oil is still Norway’s largest emission point. It is now up to the industry partners of the Northern Lights project to scale up this current project.

The authors say their analysis underlines the need for strong policy support for CCS and a rapid expansion of other decarbonisation technologies for climate targets. 

- Rapid deployment of CCS needs strong support schemes to make CCS projects financially viable. At the same time, our results show that globally we can only count on CCS to deliver 600 Gt of CO₂ captured and stored over the 21^st century. This means that other low-carbon technologies like solar and wind power need to expand even faster, says Aleh Cherp, Professor at Central European University in Austria and co-author of the study.